At the end of 2024, we noted Bitcoin looked overextended. Q1 validated that view, with a healthy correction that reaffirmed this bull’s strength.
Fast forward a quarter and that’s roughly what we saw from a price perspective. Bitcoin corrected, tested critical levels, and once again proved its resilience.
Here’s snippet of our comments from December 19, 2024:
On April 7th, Bitcoin put in a low at $74,434. Very near a level that, if breached, would have indicated this Bitcoin bull had come to an early end. Fortunately, the tables turned, and during this quarter’s equity and bond market panics, Bitcoin showed its resilience by rallying.
While stocks were down -20% from their highs, Bitcoin, like Gold, decoupled and acted as a safe haven as concerns around tariffs and fears of recession started to creep in again. For Bitcoin, this was another moment to shine during chaos.
Q1 wasn't just about price. It was one of the most consequential quarters in Bitcoin's history from a policy and infrastructure standpoint:
Also in March, the OCC, FDIC and banking regulators announced banks no longer need prior approval to engage in cryptocurrency activities. Removing some long-held hurdles that have stymied progress on this front.
On April 23rd: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the Institute of International Finance and laid out a path forward to getting the IMF, exporting, importing, deficit and surplus countries on the same page.
On the same day, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and Sotftbank teamed up with now former Strike CEO Jack Mallers to launch Twenty One – a Bitcoin-native Company. Strike was one of the earliest Bitcoin-native exchange/wallet/money changers. This new entity, Twenty One, will offer Bitcion exposure to investors through Bitcoin-native financial products.
In my opinion, Bessent’s speech and the creation of Twenty One are defining moments in history.
Together, and coupled with the above legislation shifts, these are important steps in outlining how Bitcoin and stablecoins will be merged into our existing financial systems - changing how money is used on a go forward. Not only are these moves innovative, they are also very similar to how the US Dollar Basket was created during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944.
The US Dollar Basket defined monetary order for the next 30 to 80 years, depending on one’s view of Petrodollars.
On the Bitcoin front there is still much work to be done. However, this past quarter was proof that Bitcoin is about more than price.
As the saying goes, “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happened.”
These past few weeks, a decade happened.
On the price front, Bitcoin’s bull still looks to be intact. We could see some resistance around the 94/95k level, but prices should trend higher until later this year. A time in Bitcoin's four year cycle when it has historically taken a breather.
As Bitcoin marches toward becoming a pillar of global finance, expect more volatility, more headlines, and more moments where decades happen in weeks.
This past quarter was proof: Bitcoin is more than an asset. It’s an emerging system. A technology. A strategic reserve. A new chapter in financial history.
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