The S&P has not seen a weekly decline since the March lows of the Iran conflict, its longest weekly winning streak since December of 2023. Chip makers continue to power this current rally, with the S&P Global Semiconductor Index surging +28% in May and nearly doubling since the start of the year. As such, our Technical Dial remains in a Positive position. 

New home sales for April fell well short of expectations, down -11% from the same month last year due to higher mortgage rates and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Q1 GDP was revised downward by -0.4% as consumption came in even weaker than initial estimates. Given the continued level of economic uncertainty, our Fundamental Dial remains in a Negative position through the end of May.

SpaceX looks set to become the latest company to test the limits of this bull market, with investors ready to value the as yet unprofitable company at close to $2 trillion, or nearly 100x trailing revenue. With such extreme optimism rampant, we continue to take a cautious approach and leave our Valuation Dial in a Negative position.