In the last update, we discussed Bitcoin Bear Markets, what a Bitcoin Halving is, and a potential path forward for Bitcoin’s next bull market.
What’s Important Now?
With Bitcoin’s next bull well underway, we are watching a digital asset class enter young adulthood as institutions decide how they want to place it in portfolios.
At 15 years old, Bitcoin is now being adopted by the masses, including the who’s who of global financial institutions. Thus far, each cycle has been slightly different as new players are pulled in by the FOMO of prior peaks. However, there is one constant.
Bitcoin continues to grow and progress towards a much needed upgrade to our aging financial rails.
This is the opportunity amid the noise. Larry Fink of BlackRock highlights this by saying, “Building new infrastructure is critical.”
Bitcoin represents new financial infrastructure like Amazon’s AWS revolutionized internet infrastructure for cloud computing and e-commerce.
Where Are We and How Did We Get Here?
The current Bitcoin bull market began slightly earlier than past cycles, starting in October 2023. The early start aligns with the pre-emptive and substantial demand for Bitcoin ETFs in traditional markets. In the first month of trading, new Bitcoin ETFs accumulated over $10 billion in assets, growing to around $40 billion in the 9 new funds. BlackRock’s ETF leads the way as the fastest ETF to ever reach $10 billion.
What's Next?
My crystal ball is out of commission, but if we stick to the path of the prior three Bitcoin Epochs, then based on Bitcoin’s price action post-Halving (April 19, 2024) we’re very likely early into the next Bitcoin Bull Market.
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Historically, there is a 40 to 90-day lag post-halving before price begins to move again.
Nothing is certain, but that’s been the average. Price started its bull move earlier than normal and moved up higher than expected on the back of the ETF launch hype.
Therefore, it wouldn't be entirely unexpected if Bitcoin reaches its peak earlier than anticipated, especially as we near the conclusion of the Bull cycle and witness its integration into traditional portfolios, triggering a shift in emotional investment behaviors.
A typical Bitcoin bull market usually spans 1-1.33 years in duration. If the pattern of the 4-year cycle remains consistent, then we are witnessing familiar behavior once more. Bitcoin still has some time on its side to continue its upward trajectory.
Let's Get Political
While I’d prefer politics to stay out of Bitcoin, it seems unavoidable. A changing of the guard in technology built to move money throughout the financial system has ruffled a few feathers, to say the least.
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After years of Elizabeth Warren engaging in “Chokepoint 2.0” the tune finally seems to be changing.
Elizabeth and her team sought to close off on-ramp banking options for Bitcoin and Crypto companies. Her path to victory was to stymie banking innovation. The victims caught in the crossfire: Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and the traditional Regional Banking sector that suffered a major crisis last year.
As the fight continued, several Bills lost steam that were intended to hold Bitcoin and Crypto back.
- The House passed Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21).
- The SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB121) was overturned which helps open the door for financial firms to be able to custody Bitcoin and Crypto.
- Warren’s #2, Gary Gensler, who presides over the SEC has also had a bit of a rough go of late; losing numerous critical cases against the crypto industry over the last 18 – 24 months.
Following Trump's announcement, the current administration swiftly pivoted its stance on Crypto, aligning itself with the changing tide.
While election season always offers something to debate, this one seems likely to hinge on Digital Assets. This technology and these assets will set the table for how the US will compete with the rest of the world as new financial rails are built to support the future of money and value transfer.
Regardless of political stance, the innovation that Bitcoin brings to our financial rails is an important topic. Too bad we couldn’t innovate without political debates!
In the coming months, there are no guarantees other than likely volatility.
However, history and time suggest that there is still room to run in this Bitcoin Bull. If not, those who’ve piled in at highs will be the newest Orange Piller’s of the next wave!
Disclaimer: Our intent in providing this material is purely for informational purposes, as of the date hereof, and may be subject to change without notice. This article does not intend to constitute accounting, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Visitors and readers should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking appropriate advice from a trusted accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional.
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