While overall equity momentum remains strong, we’re seeing narrowing breadth exemplified by the tech-heavy NASDAQ gaining +17% so far in 2024 while the old-economy Dow Jones Industrial Average is up just +5%.
We’ll want to see more broad-based gains if this current bull market is going to have sustained legs, but for now our Momentum Dial remains Positive.
We’re continuing to see higher interest rates and depleted savings weigh on broad economic activity, with Walgreens the most recent company to announce significant store closures due to falling consumer spending.
While the global economy continues to muddle through this period, the risks of a future downturn leave our Fundamental Dial in a Negative position.
Valuations were roughly unchanged during the month of June, with gains in the S&P driven by projected earnings growth of +9% for Q2.
While lower interest rates should help relieve pressure on stocks, P/E ratios still sit near the high end of their historical range, which leaves our Valuation Dial in a Negative position through June.
Our composite Three Dials reading remains in a Moderately Defensive position through the end of Q2, with two dials Negative and one dial Positive.
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Our investment philosophy, known as the “Three Dials”, factors in three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Valuation.
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