After the sharp tariff-induced selloff in April, the S&P has rallied over 30% without even a 3% pullback along the way, just the fifth time in the index’s history we’ve seen such a sharp and steady rise.
While conventional wisdom suggests that such a ride can’t last forever, momentum remains sharply on the side of buyers, and as such our Sentiment Dial stays Positive.
Despite a lack of available economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Fed opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in as many months, citing softness in the labor market even with inflation remaining stubbornly above target.
With consumers still taking an increasingly pessimistic view, we keep our Fundamental Dial in a Negative position.
The last warnings of bubble-like tendencies in the AI space came from none other than OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, noting that despite the obvious long-term applications of AI, it is inevitable that some will overinvest and lose money during this phase of the boom. With prices soaring while future revenue potential remains unclear, we leave our Valuation Dial in a Negative position.
On balance, our composite positioning remains somewhat defensive, with one dial in a Positive position but two dials remaining Negative.
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Our investment philosophy, known as the “Three Dials”, factors in three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Valuation.
The Three Dials provide a cohesive reading on the health, or “pulse” of the markets. The Dials provide a passive investment approach, with an active overlay. Each dial adjusts to data-driven indicators for maximized risk efficiency and an optimal allocation of diversified assets within your portfolio.
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