After spending the first half of the month clawing back their tariff-driven losses, equities broadly leveled off as investors seek clarity on how future trade policy will impact markets.
Heading into the typically slower summer months, we leave our Momentum Dial in a Neutral position.
It appears for now that April’s economic data, incorporating the most punitive possible tariff rates, will be the low water mark as month-over-month comparisons should start to improve. However, we’ve still yet to scratch the surface of how any future price increases could impact consumer decision making.
As such, we leave our Fundamental Dial in a Negative position as we await an improvement in the data.
A combination of rising stock prices and higher bond yields did nothing in May to alleviate already stretched equity valuations. In this historically expensive market, our Valuation Dial remains in a Negative position.
On balance, we remain defensively positioned, with two dials sitting in a Negative position and one dial at Neutral.
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