While individual investors appear unsure about the direction of the stock market, institutional traders are as bullish as they’ve been since 2021, according to CBOE put/call data.
As long as buyers continue to step in and support each market dip, our Momentum Dial will continue to hold in its Positive position.
While markets will continue to try to parse the stimulative policies of deregulation and tax cuts with the potentially contractionary impacts of trade wars and spending cuts, it is a good time to point out that ultimately, long-term economic growth (and thus market performance) is agnostic to who sits in the White House.
Right now, declining building permits and gloomy consumer confidence is offsetting an uptick in manufacturing orders, so our Fundamental Dial remains in a Negative position, though continued improvement in the data could cause us to upgrade that position.
While Trump exerts his influence over economic policy, he’ll have little to no control over frothy market valuations, as he inherits the most expensive stock market of any president in US history according to economist Robert Shiller. As such, our Valuation Dial remains Negative.
Our composite Three Dials reading remains in a Moderately Defensive position through year-end, with two dials Negative and one dial Positive.
Do you lack clarity on the quality of your investments and their performance?
Are you looking to simplify and consolidate your assets with a trusted team of experienced professionals that sit on the same side of the table as you?
Regardless of where you are, or where you’ve been, we partner with our clients to help them manage their wealth and steward it across generations.
The markets can be difficult to navigate and can be bumpy along the way. Through our collective 75+ years of experience, we’ve learned to keep it simple.
Our investment advice is based on a principled, evidence-based strategy that guides our decisions. We work to mitigate downside exposure while producing competitive returns over the long-term.
Our investment philosophy, known as the “Three Dials”, factors in three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Valuation.
The Three Dials provide a cohesive reading on the health, or “pulse” of the markets. The Dials provide a passive investment approach, with an active overlay. Each dial adjusts to data-driven indicators for maximized risk efficiency and an optimal allocation of diversified assets within your portfolio.
© 2025 ARKOS GLOBAL ADVISORS | DISCLOSURES