The S&P cracked the 7,000 level in January for the first time in history, despite a negative contribution from the previously high-flying technology sector. With the rally in small- and mid-caps and continued strength international, we’re seeing broad-based support for an ongoing bull market. As such, our Momentum Dial remains in a Positive position.
Consumer confidence fell in January to its lowest level since 2014, surpassing even the pandemic depths of 2020 as job market concerns continue to weigh on individuals’ perception of the economy. This pessimism is starting to impact big ticket spending, with the National Association of Realtors reporting record low pending home sales in January. We continue to keep our Fundamental Dial in a Negative position.
Despite what has been a strong corporate earnings season so far, investors are heavily scrutinizing results to justify stretched valuations, most notably with Microsoft’s stock falling 10% despite beating revenue and earnings expectations given underperformance around AI-related aspects of the business. With stocks priced to perfection around lofty growth expectations, our Valuation Dial remains Negative.
On balance, our composite positioning remains somewhatdefensive, with one dial in a Positive position but two dials remainingNegative.
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Our investment philosophy, known as the “Three Dials”, factors in three primary indicators: Momentum, Economic Fundamentals and Valuation.
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